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Reports & guidance

The UKCP09 climate projections have been compiled into five main scientific reports, all of which can be downloaded from the UKCP09 Published Reports table below: the Briefing report, the Observed trends report, the Climate projections report, the Marine and coastal projections report and the Weather Generator report. The Observed trends extremes atlas is also available here.

In addition a series of Technical Notes are available that provide technical information about certain aspects of the UKCP09 projections. These are available in the Technical Notes table below.

Further guidance on using the observed trends, climate change projections, marine and coastal projections, weather generator, 11-member Regional Climate Model (RCM) and Spatially Coherent Projections can be found using the links on the left of the page.

UKCP09 published reports

Title and descriptionDownload summary and report

The Briefing report provides summary information from the four UKCP09 science reports.

For guidance on this report see About the Briefing report.

Briefing report (June, 2009)  Briefing report cover small

The Climate of the United Kingdom and Recent Trends (Observed trends) report contains information on observed climate trends in the UK, to provide an historical context for the future climate change projections. Maps and graphs are available for many of the same variables that appear in the UKCP09 projections.

For guidance on material in this report see About the Observed Trends .

Observed trends report (January 2009) Observed trends report cover small

The Climate Projections report provides probabilistic climate projections for the UK, along with information on how the projections were developed.

For guidance on material in this report see About the Climate Change Projections.

Climate Projections report (version 2, July 2009) Climate Projections report small

The Marine and Coastal Projections report provides a set of scenarios that may be used to assess how vulnerable particular sites or sectors are to future climate change. The report considers the marine environment from the coastal zone and into the waters of the shelf seas around the UK.

For guidance on material in this report see About the Marine and Coastal Projections.

Marine and Coastal Projections (June 2009) Marine and coastal projections report small

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) uses a Weather Generator tool to create synthetic time series of weather variables at 5 km resolution, which are consistent with the underlying climate projections.

The Weather Generator Report explains the principles behind the Weather Generator, explains how it can be used and contains maps of illustrative changes in future extremes across the UK.

For guidance on the Weather Generator and the Threshold Detector see About the Weather Generator.

Weather Generator report (June 2009) WG cover small

The Observed Trends Extremes Atlas was produced as a supplement to UKCP09. It provides a baseline from which to apply UKCP09 projections of extreme events. In includes chapters on:

  • Daily data (1960-2006), monthly data (1924 to 2005), and regional climate model generated data (1957-2002).
  • Temperature (daily extremes, heatwaves and coldwaves, and 40-year return levels at the monthly level).
  • Precipitation (accumulations over specific daily periods and months).
  • Gusts (specific year return levels of daily maximum).
  • Storms (maps of genesis, track, decay and strength of storms and anticyclones with blocking frequency by season).

Observed Trends Extremes atlas

Technical notes

Title and descriptionDownload

This technical note on Storm Projections summarises the information available on storms in UKCIP02, UKCP09 and selected other sources. Different publications can define storms differently and so readers must be clear how a storm is being defined.

Technical note on storm projections [119kb]                                                   

This technical note on Probabilistic Wind Projections presents probabilistic projections of changes in 30-year mean wind speeds relative to 1961-1990.

Technical note on probabilistic wind projections [2Mb]

This technical note shows the changes from the original Weather Generator, using Tables 3 and 4 from the Weather Generator report.

Technical note on changes in Weather Generator v2.0 [394kb]

This technical note explains the validation of the Weather Generator.

Technical note on Weather Generator validation [3Mb]

This technical note provides an analysis of the variability introduced by the Weather Generator compared to that generated by the probabilistic projections.

Technical note on variability in Weather Generator simulations [848kb]

This technical note presents projections of lightning from the 11-member RCM.

Technical note on projections of lightning from the 11-member RCM [4Mb]

This technical note presents projections of snow from the 11-member RCM.

Technical note on snow projections from the 11-member RCM [1Mb]

This technical note presents fog projections from the 11-member RCM

Technical note on fog projections from the 11-member RCM [3Mb]

This technical note on surface wind speed was produced to provide information on wind speed, as such information was not available directly from the initial UKCP09 results.

Technical note on surface wind speed from the 11-member RCM [1Mb]

Supplement to the wind speed note (added Oct 2010) [334kb]

An 11-member ensemble of Spatially Coherent Projections (SCPs) has been generated to support those users who need to consider climate change at more than one location in a way that captures the relationship between the different locations.

Guidance on the Spatially Coherent Projections is available here.

Spatially Coherent Projections technical note [1Mb] 

This technical note on sunshine hours explains the approach used to generate more realistic information on sunshine hours

Technical note on sunshine and water vapour [967kb]